NFL Notes

[X-Files]

"[FONT=&quot]I talked about the BALT/MIA game in the newsletter this week. At the time the line was MIA +7. All day today when the line hit +7 or +7.5, the sharps immediately pounced and have been pushing it back to +6.5. Without a doubt this will be a Pro's v Joe's game come Sunday."

[/FONT]https://twitter.com/thesharpplays?lang=en

 

[sunshine11]

I'm really surprised the mods let you post Twitter links. I thought it was a no-no.

 

[X-Files]

I'm really surprised the kids let you post Twitter links. I thought it was a no-no.

"Trix are for kids"

https://www.google.com/search?q=tri...IHSaXDy0Q9QEwDXoECAMQDA#imgrc=uh7vZDnNOjpXjM:

 

[indiana]

X-Files...…...BOL with your action this week buddy...….have a great season...…..indy

 

[X-Files]

Thanks Indi.

"Rodgers overcame an early knee injury to throw three touchdown passes in the second half as Green Bay rallied from a 20-point deficit to post a 24-23 victory Sept 9. The two-time NFL Most Valuable Player's heroics were enough to win that game, but the Packers were forced to watch the division champion Bears in the playoffs after the latter joined Houston as the lone NFL teams to complete a "worst-to-first" turnaround in 2018."

"...Running back Aaron Jones enjoyed a brilliant seven-game stretch in which he totaled eight scores (seven rushing, one receiving) before a knee injury ended his season in a 24-17 loss to Chicago in Week 15."

https://www.covers.com/pageLoader/pageLoader.aspx?page=/data/nfl/matchups/g1_preview_1.html

 

[X-Files]

Tout Tally here through 3:30 PM PST:

http://www.therxforum.com/showthread.php?t=1143134&page=2


GB 10
Chi 5

over 4
under 0

 

[X-Files]

"[FONT=&quot]NFL... The public is on the Bears here and the sharp action has been strong for Green Bay +3.5. However the sharp action stopped dead at +3 and now action is mixed at 3. The total is seeing split public action with the sharps leaning ever so slightly to the OVER 46.5. "

[/FONT]https://twitter.com/TheSharpPlays?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^author

 

[X-Files]

[FONT=&quot]"I'm often asked when to bet spread vs. ML for an underdog. Below shows how often dogs win outright when they cover with the point spreads listed...[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]92% of 1-3pt[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]65% of 3.5-6.5pt [/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]53% of 7-10pt[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]37% of 10-14pt[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]10% of 14+pt[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]So, 92% of 1-3pt dogs who cover, win outright."[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]
[/FONT]
[FONT=&quot]https://twitter.com/thesharpplays?lang=en [/FONT]

 

[RShahNyC]

"I'm often asked when to bet spread vs. ML for an underdog. Below shows how often dogs win outright when they cover with the point spreads listed...


92% of 1-3pt
65% of 3.5-6.5pt
53% of 7-10pt
37% of 10-14pt
10% of 14+pt


So, 92% of 1-3pt dogs who cover, win outright."


https://twitter.com/thesharpplays?lang=en

Bang for buck wise maybe the 1-3 and the 7-10 ones are worth it to bet ML?

 

[X-Files]

Bang for buck wise maybe the 1-3 and the 7-10 ones are worth it to bet ML?

Good question. Perhaps so, especially for those who have multiple outs & can find excellent numbers on the ML?

 

[X-Files]

HEIM is on LAR/Car under 24.5 1H today.

[FONT=&quot]Heim 475-401-19 +58.57 UNITS (NCAAF: 302 Rice +21 -125)

http://forums.eog.com/index.php?threads/eogs-best-bet-thread-for-sunday-september-8.7463725/[/FONT]

 

[X-Files]

HEIM is on LAR/Car under 24.5 1H today.

Heim 475-401-19 +58.57 UNITS (NCAAF: 302 Rice +21 -125)

http://forums.eog.com/index.php?threads/eogs-best-bet-thread-for-sunday-september-8.7463725/

Heim wins again with an easy 1H under 24.5.

 

[X-Files]

"[FONT=&quot]Interesting! [/FONT]@PointShaver13[FONT=&quot] also notes that since 08-09, Patriots as Double Digit Road Favorites, 2nd Half Under is 10-0 as well! Could setup some good in-play betting!"

[/FONT]https://twitter.com/thesharpplays?lang=en

 

[X-Files]

"Over in the NFL, another Arizona is getting sharp money. Arizona +14 received a very strong sharp buy. The line was 14 at the open and then immediately went down. I could see why they like this one. I mean Arizona is not good even if they did come back to tie Detroit. However, I think the value the public is putting in Baltimore is overblown. Baltimore is getting WAAAAY too much credit for beating a joke of a Miami team. I could see Baltimore winning but the two TD mark is a lot and the +14 is a good key number."

 

[X-Files]

Heim going with the under 24.5 -115 1H tonight.

 

[X-Files]

"The Sharp Plays‏ @TheSharpPlays 3h3 hours ago

[FONT=&quot]NFL... Not a surprise here but everyone & their mother is on Carolina -7. Some sharp action at -6.5 but it was light and early. Since then not much sharp involvement. On the total, action is pretty even with sharps and public on both sides. If it changes, I'll update."[/FONT]

 

[X-Files]

"[FONT=&quot]Mr. Poison had a rough weekend in the NFL but that never stopped him! Tonight he is going with $97K to win $35K on Carolina -278 over Tampa, $56K to win $25K on Carolina -225 for the 1st half and $38K to win $20K on Carolina -190 for the 1st Quarter."[/FONT]

 

[X-Files]

"[FONT=&quot]Late sharp money is arriving on Tampa to +6.5 and UN48.5."[/FONT]

 

[tlee4lizard]

Now this is good info .. Before the game much appreciated . Although for some reason I really like the over and already bet it .. so it's a wait and see. Best of luck to ya

 

[X-Files]

Heim going with the under 24.5 -115 1H tonight.

Another win for Heim with the TB/Carolina 1H final score being 10-9.